Sawn structural softwood demand will peak in March 2022 according to IndustryEdge’s Australian Sawn Softwood Demand Forecast. Source: IndustryEdge
The forecast is an important tool for understanding demand and supply balances, for organising business-level supplies and scheduling workloads.
There is a clear difference between demand on the one hand and consumption on the other.
Consumption is a measure of supply put to the market, while demand represents what theoretically is required for the period. The consequence of these different but clearly related measures is that there are times when supply is insufficient to meet demand and of course, periods when demand is less than available supply.
The Australian market has experienced demand running well ahead of supply for all of 2021. This latest forecast suggests the situation will be at its worst in March 2022, before demand begins to fall and returns to high, but normal, levels by late 2022.
Having provided the monthly Sawn Softwood Apparent Consumption data and analysis for almost two years, the new demand forecast provides the opportunity to assess actual consumption and near term projections of demand.
The implication of the latest data is that unless something significant changes on the supply side, the significant deficit in sawn wood for housing purposes will continue well into 2022. Though it will begin to normalise toward the end of 2022, that will still likely leave a significant overhang – a pipeline – of building work yet to be completed and in some cases, not even commenced.
In the chart, the forecast is shown on the right hand axis, building on the apparent consumption line shown in green.
Clients throughout the supply chain are using forecasts, consumption tools and trade flow analysis tools provided by Wood Market Edge online to:
- Schedule existing home building commitments, to ensure there is sufficient structural timber to
- meet commitments
- Assess whether they have access to sufficient structural wood to take on new commitments
- Schedule timber orders from local suppliers and wholesalers
- Order imports and manage inventories.
Those are among the short-term considerations supported by sawn softwood forecasts.
For sawmills, other producers, importers, wholesalers and significant buyers and users of structural timber, the demand forecasts and supply analysis tools are also being used in deep strategic discussions.
The last year of runaway sawn timber demand, that supply was unable to match, has exposed the magnitude of Australia’s structural timber deficit and the extent of its reliance on imports to meet demand. Local supply, both at the production capacity and log availability points are critical to understand and vital to include in business planning considerations.
