ABS Housing Finance flat-lined in October 2012, providing little additional insight into the prospects for a sustainable recovery in new home building in 2013 according to the Housing Industry Association. Source: Timberbiz
“There has been some modest improvement in total housing finance since mid 2012 and at face value that is an encouraging development,” said HIA’s chief economist, Harley Dale.
Looking over the three months to October this year, the number of loans was up for new dwellings, down for construction, and up for existing property (net of refinancing).
Across states and territories, new home lending was up in New South Wales, Western Australia, and Tasmania, but down in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory, and the Australian Capital Territory.
The value of loans for investment purposes increased for new constructions and for existing property.
“Some signs of recovery are better than none and that is what the housing finance figures are showing. A pull-back in loans for construction over the October 2012 ‘quarter’ is clearly an area for concern, however, as is the decline in new home lending in a majority of state and territories,” he said.
“We also need to take note that a methodological issue with the measurement of housing finance may be exaggerating signs of recovery in 2012.”
In the month of October 2012 the number of loans for the purchase of new dwellings continued to recover in an encouraging manner, increasing by 4.2%, but the number of loans for construction eased by 0.3% and is at its lowest level since January.
The number of loans for existing property, net of refinancing, eased by 0.1%. On the investment front, the value of loans for existing property fell by 1.5%, but the value of loans for construction jumped by 129%.
In October 2012 the total number of seasonally adjusted loans for the construction and purchase of new homes rose in three states, increasing by 6.7% in New South Wales, 1.8% in South Australia, and 2.9% in Western Australia.
The number of loans fell by 0.2% in Victoria, 3.0% in Queensland, 12.5% in Tasmania, 7.7% in the Northern Territory, and 4.8% in the Australian Capital Territory
