Australia’s exports of hardwood logs were within their normal range in August, at 64,752 m3, but the prominence of supplies to China was again on display, accounting for 98.7% of the total. The return of China’s near absolute dominance came after shipments to Malaysia slumped back, having risen sharply from April to July. Source: IndustryEdge for Timberbiz
IndustryEdge’s Tim Woods told DTN that the apparently dramatic fall in exports of hardwood logs to Malaysia was not significant in its own right.
“Hardwood logs to Malaysia came out of Burnie in Tasmania in March and April, with no recorded supply in May,” Mr Woods said.
“Then they were reported again in June – at about double the monthly average of around 20,000 m3 a month – and were closer to that 20,000 level again in July, with nothing in August. Don’t look at the pattern here because there isn’t one.”
IndustryEdge says a ‘double-shipment’ may have occurred again in September. Pressed for an answer as to why shipments have been making their way to Malaysia, Mr Woods was non-commital.
“We think we understand the current situation however, we haven’t confirmed that with the parties involved, so its not appropriate to speculate,” he said.
“What is interesting from a trade perspective is that hardwood log exports now appear to be locked in at around 60,000 m3 per month, with Tasmania, Victoria and Queensland all in the trade, on a different basis.”
To underscore what IndustryEdge describes as a ‘widely varied’ trade, it points to average export prices in August that were reported as low as AUD111.70/m3 from Tasmania and as high as AUD251.83/m3 from Queensland.
“Hardwood log exports have grown dramatically over the last two years,” Mr Woods said. “Ignoring the blips up and down in some months, exports over the last year averaged a bit more than 55,000 m3 a month. We think that will continue over the coming year.”
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